EU27 chemical export value falls 42% YoY in January 2026, distorted by anomalous 2025 base
Key takeaway
The EU27 chemical industry faced a sharp contraction in January 2026, with output declining 4.2% year-on-year to an index level of 78.9, remaining 18% below pre-crisis levels (2014–2019 average). Export value plummeted 41.7% to 16.24 bn€, though this reflects an anomalous January 2025 base inflated by pre-tariff front-loading ahead of US measures. Against a normal baseline, the underlying export decline approximates 21%. The trade balance compressed to 0.71 bn€, down 8.35 bn€ from January 2025, as import values fell more moderately at 17.5%. Sales declined 8.3% across all major producing countries, with Belgium posting the steepest fall at 16.5%. Producer prices decreased 2.2%, underperforming stable manufacturing prices, while export volumes fell 15% compared to the 42% value decline, indicating a pronounced shift toward lower unit-value categories.
EU27 chemical output falls 4.2% YoY in January 2026, remaining 18% below pre-crisis levels
Sector context
EU27 chemical output declined by 4.2% in January 2026 compared to January 2025, reaching an index level of 78.9. The sector remains 18.4% below pre-crisis levels (2014–2019 average). Chemical output underperformed total manufacturing, which declined by only 0.7% over the same period.
EU27 chemical producer prices decreased by 2.2% in January 2026 compared to January 2025, reaching an index level of 116.8. Chemical prices declined while total manufacturing prices remained stable at 119.8, unchanged from the previous year.
EU27 chemical sales decreased by 8.3% in January 2026 compared to January 2025. The sales index reached 90.5 in January 2026, down from 98.7 in the same month of 2025. Chemical sales underperformed total manufacturing, which declined by 2.0% over the same period.
Country output, YoY
Demand issue or price issue: where each EU27 chemical major sits in February 2026
The four-quadrant view pairs the year-on-year producer price change (horizontal) with the year-on-year production volume change (vertical) for the seven top EU27 chemical producers. Countries in the upper-right quadrant combine rising prices with rising volumes, a synchronised expansion. Lower-left points combine falling prices and falling volumes, a synchronised contraction. The off-diagonal quadrants distinguish demand-side from supply-side stress.
Most EU27 majors cluster in the lower-left in February 2026, with both prices and volumes declining. The exception is France, the only country pairing a modest volume gain with a small price decline. The dispersion on the price axis is wider than on the volume axis, indicating that price softness is broader than the volume retreat across the panel.
Source: Cefic analysis based on Eurostat sts_inppd_m (I21, NSA) and sts_inpr_m (I21, SCA), February 2026 vs February 2025 (2026)
EU27 chemical export value falls 42% YoY in January 2026, distorted by anomalous 2025 base
- Other organic basic chemicals 0.48 bn€
- Other chemical products 0.43 bn€
- Basic pharmaceutical products 0.43 bn€
- Other chemical products 0.31 bn€
- Plastics in primary forms 0.27 bn€
- Perfumes and toilet preparations 0.22 bn€
- Other chemical products 0.36 bn€
- Perfumes and toilet preparations 0.32 bn€
- Plastics in primary forms 0.31 bn€
Trade context
EU27 chemical exports decreased by 41.7% in value in January 2026 in comparison to January 2025, a figure heavily influenced by an anomalous prior-year base. Exports amounted to 16.24 bn€ in January 2026, down by 11.64 bn€ compared to 2025. Export volumes fell by 15.0% over the same period, reflecting a shift toward lower unit-value categories.
This figure reflects an unusually high base in January 2025, driven by pre-tariff front-loading ahead of US measures introduced in March 2025. EU exports to the US averaged 21.65 bn€/month in the preceding 12 months but spiked to 27.88 bn€ in January 2025, sitting 6.0 standard deviations above the rolling mean. Against a normal base (January 2024), exports are down by approximately 20.9%, a more representative indication of the underlying trend.
With 2.49 bn€, the United States is the primary destination of EU27 chemical exports, followed by the United Kingdom (1.98 bn€) and China (1.43 bn€). Exports to the United States plummeted by 79.4%, driven by other organic basic chemicals (0.48 bn€) and other chemical products (0.43 bn€). Exports to the United Kingdom decreased by 5.3%, led by other chemical products (0.36 bn€) and perfumes and toilet preparations (0.32 bn€). Exports to China fell by 7.3%, with other chemical products (0.31 bn€) and plastics in primary forms (0.27 bn€) as the largest flows.
Organic chemicals experienced the steepest decline at 75.8%, falling to 2.95 bn€ from 12.16 bn€ in January 2025. Essential oils and resinoids decreased by 11.1% to 3.34 bn€, while miscellaneous chemical products dropped by 16.0% to 2.84 bn€.
In January 2026, EU27 chemical imports decreased by 17.5% in value in comparison to the same month in 2025. EU27 chemical imports amounted to 15.53 bn€ in January 2026, down by 3.29 bn€ compared to 2025.
EU27 chemical imports fell by 25.1% in volume and 17.5% in value in January 2026, reflecting a shift toward higher-value categories despite lower overall trade flows. Against the five-year window, imports increased by 42.9% in value since January 2021, while volumes declined by 14.5%.
With 3.79 bn€, China is the primary source of imports of the EU27 area for chemicals, followed by the United States (2.46 bn€) and Switzerland (2.02 bn€). Imports from China remained broadly stable at 3.79 bn€, down 0.9% compared to January 2025. Imports from the United States decreased by 27.5% to 2.46 bn€, down 0.94 bn€ from 2025. Imports from the United Kingdom fell by 30% to 1.32 bn€, down 0.57 bn€ compared to 2025.
Organic chemicals (CN 29) accounts for the largest share at 7.25 bn€, down 11.7% compared to January 2025. Miscellaneous chemical products (CN 38) amounted to 1.83 bn€, down 14.7%, while plastics and articles thereof (CN 39) reached 1.59 bn€, down 19.8%.