EU27 chemical exports fall 42% in February amid anomalous base effects
The EU27 chemical industry reported a sharp contraction in the first two months of 2026, with exports falling 42.1% in value to €34.5 bn — a figure heavily distorted by pre-tariff front-loading in February 2025 that created an unusually high comparison base. Chemical output declined 3.9% year-on-year in February, reaching 79.3 on the 2021 index and sitting 18% below pre-crisis levels (2014–2019 average). Producer prices fell 2.8% year-on-year to 117.2, while sales dropped 7.5% in January to 90.8. The export decline was concentrated among the top-5 partners, which account for 50% of total value, with the United States alone contributing €19 bn of the €25.1 bn total decrease. Against a normalised February 2024 base, exports declined by approximately 10%, indicating underlying weakness beyond the statistical distortion.
EU27 chemical output down 3.9% in February, 18% below pre-crisis levels
EU27 chemical production declined by 3.9% in February 2026 compared to February 2025, with the index reaching 79.3 (2021=100). In the first two months of 2026, chemical output averaged 79.1, down 1.7% compared to the same period in 2025. The sector remains 18% below pre-crisis levels (2014–2019 average).
Chemical production underperformed total manufacturing, which declined by just 0.4% in February. Pharmaceuticals fell more, at 8.6%, while basic metals dropped 0.7% and motor vehicles gained 2.0%.
Country trends show significant variation across the EU27. The Netherlands experienced the steepest decline at 9.6%, followed by Italy (6.9%) and Germany (3.5%). Spain fell 3.3%, Poland declined 2.1%, and Belgium dropped 1.2%. Only France gained, at 1.1%.
Source: Cefic analysis based on Eurostat data (2026)
Source: Cefic analysis based on Eurostat data (2026)
EU27 chemical prices down 2.8% year-on-year in February 2026
EU27 chemical producer prices declined by 2.8% in February 2026 compared to February 2025, reaching an index level of 117.2. In the first two months of 2026, chemical prices averaged 117.0, down 0.8% compared to the same period in 2025.
Chemical prices fell more sharply than total manufacturing, which remained broadly stable at 0.2% year-on-year. Among industrial sectors, basic metals experienced the steepest price increases at 8.8%, while pharmaceuticals rose by 1.9% and motor vehicles by 0.9%.
The Netherlands experienced the steepest price decline at 9.2%, followed by Belgium (5.5%) and France (3.0%). Germany reported a 1.7% decrease, while Spain matched the EU27 average at 2.8%. Italy posted the smallest decline at 0.3%. Poland decreased by 1.9%.
Source: Cefic analysis based on Eurostat data (2026)
Source: Cefic analysis based on Eurostat data (2026)
EU27 chemical sales down 7.5% in January 2026
EU27 chemical sales fell by 7.5% in January 2026 compared to January 2025, with the index reaching 90.8 (2021=100). The decline outpaced total manufacturing, which decreased by 1.8% over the same period.
Germany experienced the steepest decline at 8.0%, followed by the Netherlands (14.2%) and Belgium (13.2%). France reported the smallest decrease at 3.1%, while Poland fell by 11.7%. Italy and Spain posted declines of 6.7% and 6.4% respectively.
Among manufacturing sectors, pharmaceuticals recorded the largest drop at 24.4%, while motor vehicles and basic metals gained 4.9% and 4.7% respectively. These chemical sales trends by country show a fragmented Europe.
Source: Cefic analysis based on Eurostat data (2026)
Source: Cefic analysis based on Eurostat data (2026)
EU27 chemical exports fall 42% in value — a figure heavily influenced by an anomalous February 2025 base — with the US accounting for most of the decline
EU27 chemical exports fell by 42.1% in value in the first two months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. The EU27 chemical exports amounted to €34.5 bn in the first two months of 2026, down by €25.1 bn compared to 2025. EU27 chemical exports fell by 17.4% in volume and 42.1% in value between January and February 2026, reflecting a shift toward lower-value categories and unit price effects.
This figure reflects an unusually high base in February 2025, driven by pre-tariff front-loading ahead of US trade measures. EU27 exports averaged €22.3 bn per month in the 12 months preceding February 2025 but spiked to €31.6 bn in February 2025 — 4.8 standard deviations above the rolling mean. Against the February 2024 base (€20.2 bn), exports are down by approximately 10%, a more representative indication of the underlying trend.
With €3.6 bn, the United States is the primary export destination of the EU27 area for chemicals in February 2026, followed by the United Kingdom (€2.1 bn) and China (€1.4 bn). In February alone, exports to the US were down 73%, while the UK gained 5% and China declined 7%. Switzerland dropped 76% to €1.0 bn, while Brazil and South Korea posted gains of 5% and 11% respectively.
Organic chemicals experienced the steepest decline at 78%, falling to €3.5 bn from €15.7 bn in February 2025. Essential oils and resinoids decreased by 8% to €3.6 bn, while miscellaneous chemical products fell 5% to €3.1 bn. Inorganic chemicals bucked the trend, rising 25% to €1.6 bn.
With 2 partners accounting for 95% of the absolute variation in export values, the decline is concentrated in a narrow set of bilateral flows rather than reflecting a broad-based structural shift.
EU27 chemical imports down 12% in value in first two months of 2026
From January to February 2026, EU27 chemical imports decreased by 12.0% in value compared to the same period in 2025. EU27 chemical imports fell by 18.5% in volume and 12.0% in value between January and February 2026, reflecting a shift toward higher-value categories. The EU27 chemical imports amounted to €33.5 bn in the first two months of 2026, down by €4.6 bn compared to 2025.
With €4.4 bn, China is the primary source of imports of the EU27 area for chemicals, followed by the United States (€3.7 bn) and Switzerland (€1.9 bn). China and the United States both posted gains of 4.8% and 4.7% respectively in February, while Switzerland declined by 19.9%. Japan experienced the steepest decline at 30.6%, followed by South Korea (29.1%) and Saudi Arabia (20%).
Organic chemicals (CN 29) remained the largest import category at €9.2 bn, broadly stable with a marginal decline of 0.3%. Plastics and articles thereof (CN 39) fell sharply by 18.4% to €1.6 bn, while fertilisers (CN 31) plummeted by 47.2% to €0.4 bn.
Source: Cefic analysis based on Eurostat data (2026)