EU27 chemical output sits 16% below pre-crisis levels in April 2026, as prices jump 6.7% YoY
Key takeaway
The EU27 chemical industry remains in fragile stabilisation rather than recovery, with output at 81.2 in April 2026 (index 2021=100), down 1.6% year-on-year and 16% below its pre-crisis benchmark (2014-2019 average). Sentiment stays subdued: industrial confidence held at -7.5 in June 2026, still in contraction territory despite a 0.6 pp improvement, with order books at -19.2. Capacity utilisation ran at 78.0% in the second quarter of 2026, 2.2 pp below its long-run average of 80.2%, pointing to persistent underuse of installed capacity. The structural root sits in energy: EU industrial gas prices ran at roughly 3.4x delivered US levels in the second half of 2025, 48.3 against 14.0 EUR/MWh, a gap that continues to weigh on energy-intensive segments, constraining production and reinforcing relocation pressures. Producer prices rose 6.7% YoY to 127.1, the sharpest monthly acceleration since March 2022, but with volumes still falling this reads as cost pass-through, not demand. Over the past five years, output has not recovered its 2021 base.
Structural context
The signals behind the headline: business sentiment, capacity slack, and the EU/US energy cost gap that anchors the sector's competitive position.
EU27 chemical output falls 1.6% YoY in April 2026, remaining 16% below pre-crisis levels
Sector context
EU27 chemical production stood at 81.2 in April 2026 (index 2021=100), down 1.6% from 82.5 in April 2025. Over the first four months of 2026, output averaged 79.8 against 80.6 over the same period in 2025, a decline of 1.0%, pointing to a stabilisation rather than a genuine recovery.
EU27 chemical producer prices reached an index value of 127.1 in April 2026, up 6.7% compared to 119.1 in April 2025. The increase marks a break from the trend observed over the preceding twelve months, when the index had drifted down from 120.6 in February 2025 to 116.6 in December 2025. Over the first four months of 2026, the average index stood at 120.3, up 1.9% against the same period of 2025, a much smaller gain than the April reading alone suggests.
EU27 chemical sector turnover stood at 96.0 (index 2021=100) in March 2026, down 1.3% compared to 97.3 in March 2025. Over the first three months of 2026, the turnover index averaged 93.0, down 1.3% against an average of 94.2 in the same period of 2025. This compares with a flat 0.2% increase for total manufacturing turnover over the same window, underscoring the chemical sector's continued underperformance relative to the broader industrial base.
Country output, YoY
Demand issue or price issue: where each EU27 chemical major sits in February 2026
The four-quadrant view pairs the year-on-year producer price change (horizontal) with the year-on-year production volume change (vertical) for the seven top EU27 chemical producers. Countries in the upper-right quadrant combine rising prices with rising volumes, a synchronised expansion. Lower-left points combine falling prices and falling volumes, a synchronised contraction. The off-diagonal quadrants distinguish demand-side from supply-side stress.
Most EU27 majors cluster in the lower-left in February 2026, with both prices and volumes declining. The exception is France, the only country pairing a modest volume gain with a small price decline. The dispersion on the price axis is wider than on the volume axis, indicating that price softness is broader than the volume retreat across the panel.
Source: Cefic analysis based on Eurostat sts_inppd_m (I21, NSA) and sts_inpr_m (I21, SCA), February 2026 vs February 2025 (2026)
Drill-down, April 2026
- Other organic basic chemicals 0.62 bn€
- Basic pharmaceutical products 0.55 bn€
- Other chemical products 0.46 bn€
- Other chemical products 0.33 bn€
- Plastics in primary forms 0.30 bn€
- Perfumes and toilet preparations 0.27 bn€
- Other chemical products 0.43 bn€
- Plastics in primary forms 0.35 bn€
- Other organic basic chemicals 0.33 bn€